Think of it as a 286th Trimester Abortion: The Death of the McCain Campaign

Not too long ago, if you were to ask someone who the frontrunner for the 2008 race was, you would get a very different answer than you would today. It wouldn't be Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama. In fact, it wouldn't be a Democrat at all. It wouldn't even be Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or (dare I write his name without also bowing?) Newt Gingrich. It would be a man who could have done it in 2000, should have done it in 2004, and would have done it in 2008 if a few things had happened differently. He's John McCain, the King of Mavericks himself.

John McCain's campaign was picture-perfect in his 2000 run against Bush, Alan Keyes, Orrin Hatch, and a whole slew of other people. He had the fundraising, although not as well as Bush had it. He had a to-die-for staff. He had a following of people on both sides (and neither side) of the aisle. Most importantly, he had the Straight-Talk Express, the van that housed him, his staff, and reporters from across the nation. The only thing he didn't have was victory. And now, eight years later, he doesn't have much of a campaign left either.

The most obvious cause of this problem for McCain is his newfound ideas. Although McCain himself is where he's always been (slightly right of center), his biggest positions have been farther left. Recently, he caused a lot of groans among Republicans when he partnered up with Ted Kennedy (groan) to write a bill that proposed new amnesty (groan) that was supported by the president (groan - at least for this issue). He also opposed the Bush tax cuts, and although his strong pro-Iraq stance could have helped him in the primary, he failed to vote on the Iraq resolution.

The 2008 field of candidates isn't really helping much, either. The GOP is filled with top-notch people in the front: Giuliani for moderates, Thompson for conservatives, and Romney somewhere in the middle. He has also lost a lot of his independent following with the independent disdain for the president and the Congress. And, with his seventy-first birthday right around the corner, people might be more willing to support someone younger (although Reagan was inaugurated a few weeks before his seventieth birthday).

Basically, the master campaigner has a tough road ahead for the upcoming election. He's only raised about $26 million total this year to Rudy's $35.5 million and Romney's $35 million. He's been forced to cut around half his staff. With a shrinking wallet and a shrinking voter base, it's only a matter of time before McCain has to make a tough choice: to drop out, or not. And that will be the question on my mind come the end of this year.