Sunday, March 23, 2008
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Some News
I will be retiring this blog within a few days and I have just retired A View Inside the Mind. I will be replacing them soon. Please see View Inside the Mind for more information.
-tsg
-tsg
Saturday, August 18, 2007
The Grand Old Problem: No Candidates and a Looming Election
With 2007 becoming the election year as we speak and New Hampshire contemplating moving their primary into this December, the search for someone who can unite the Republican party and the nation in the general election against Hillary (or Obama/Edwards/etc. if something weird happens) is getting urgent. With around half of Republicans unsatified with the options and less than half a year until the primaries, GOPers are looking for new options and giving old options another look (see Mitt Romney's rising poll numbers). Right now, the Republican Race has three tiers: the first, the second, and the fringe. These candidates are scattered all around the political spectrum and all around the country. To help clear up the confusion, I will catagorize the candidates that are (or may be) running, and give a brief description of each of them. Hopefully, I'll teach you something, and maybe, just maybe, we can turn one of these people into a candidate we can support.
Sam Brownback. NeoCon from Kansas. Fringe.
Sam Brownback is a Senator. He supports a Flat Tax, interventionist foreign policies, repealing Roe, and Bush-style amnesty. Came in thrid at Ames. A Bush Clone polling at around 1% in the polls.
John Cox. Possible Conservative from Illinois. Fringe.
Cox is a talk radio host from Chicago. Because he is such a long shot, his views are tough to pinpoint or find. Came in last at Ames. He has absolutely no chance (polling at around .5% or less).
Newt Gingrich. NeoCon from Georgia. Second Tier. Not yet running.
Gingrich was Speaker of the House. He helped lead the Republicans to their first true congressional victory in 50 years in the 1994 Republican Revolution. Very unpopular with Liberals and Moderates, but popular with Conservatives. Polling at around 10% when included.
Rudy Giuliani. Moderate Libertarian from New York. First Tier.
Giuliani was a Mayor. He is often labeled a Moderate or a Liberal, but his strong fiscal conservatism definately puts him in liberatrian territory. His leadership brought New York City into the 21st century with slashed crime rates and taxes. He is polling at around 30%.
Mike Huckabee. NeoCon from Arkansas. Second Tier.
Huckabee was a Governor. His views are very consistent with Bush's, yet he is very popular in his moderate home state. Came in second at Ames. He has been polling at around 4 or 5 percent since Ames.
Duncan Hunter. Conservative from California. Fringe.
Hunter is a Congressman. His views are in line with the new breed of Conservatism displayed by many of the more modern NeoCons, with an interventionist foreign policy but opposing amnesty. Came in next-to-last at Ames. H has been polling at around 1%.
John McCain. Moderate from Arizona. Second-Tier.
McCain is a Senator. He ran for President against Bush in 2000. Has been steadily falling in the polls since early 2006. Losing popularity with all voters, but still popular with Moderates. He has been polling at around 10%.
Ron Paul. PaleoCon from Texas. Second-Tier.
Paul is a Congressman. He ran for President as a Libertarian in 1988. Although he is only polling at around 3% and came in fifth at Ames, he has a very devoted internet following and was considered the winner of 3 out of the 4 GOP debates.
Mitt Romney. Social Conservative (?) from Massachusetts. First-Tier.
Romney was a Governor. A moderate while Governor, Romney is now moving farther to the right for the election. He now has a reputation as a flip-flopper. He is topping the polls in 3 of the 5 early primary states and is doing well in the other 2. Came in first at Ames. He is polling at around 15%.
Tom Tancredo. Hard-Line Conservative from Colorado. Fringe.
Tancredo is a Congressman. He is known primarily for his anti-immigration stance, both legal and illegal. He is considered part of the loony right, even by many Conservatives. Came in fourth at Ames. He is polling at around 1%.
Fred Thompson. Conservative from Tennesee. First-Tier. Not yet running (?).
Thompson was a Senator. He has an 86.1% Conservative rating from the American Conservative Union. Although he still hasn't announced that he's running, he has basically been silently running for President since May. Has been polling between 15 and 20%.
There you go. One of these people will probably become the nominee, but before that happens, one of them has to give us a reason to get excited about them.
Sam Brownback. NeoCon from Kansas. Fringe.
Sam Brownback is a Senator. He supports a Flat Tax, interventionist foreign policies, repealing Roe, and Bush-style amnesty. Came in thrid at Ames. A Bush Clone polling at around 1% in the polls.
John Cox. Possible Conservative from Illinois. Fringe.
Cox is a talk radio host from Chicago. Because he is such a long shot, his views are tough to pinpoint or find. Came in last at Ames. He has absolutely no chance (polling at around .5% or less).
Newt Gingrich. NeoCon from Georgia. Second Tier. Not yet running.
Gingrich was Speaker of the House. He helped lead the Republicans to their first true congressional victory in 50 years in the 1994 Republican Revolution. Very unpopular with Liberals and Moderates, but popular with Conservatives. Polling at around 10% when included.
Rudy Giuliani. Moderate Libertarian from New York. First Tier.
Giuliani was a Mayor. He is often labeled a Moderate or a Liberal, but his strong fiscal conservatism definately puts him in liberatrian territory. His leadership brought New York City into the 21st century with slashed crime rates and taxes. He is polling at around 30%.
Mike Huckabee. NeoCon from Arkansas. Second Tier.
Huckabee was a Governor. His views are very consistent with Bush's, yet he is very popular in his moderate home state. Came in second at Ames. He has been polling at around 4 or 5 percent since Ames.
Duncan Hunter. Conservative from California. Fringe.
Hunter is a Congressman. His views are in line with the new breed of Conservatism displayed by many of the more modern NeoCons, with an interventionist foreign policy but opposing amnesty. Came in next-to-last at Ames. H has been polling at around 1%.
John McCain. Moderate from Arizona. Second-Tier.
McCain is a Senator. He ran for President against Bush in 2000. Has been steadily falling in the polls since early 2006. Losing popularity with all voters, but still popular with Moderates. He has been polling at around 10%.
Ron Paul. PaleoCon from Texas. Second-Tier.
Paul is a Congressman. He ran for President as a Libertarian in 1988. Although he is only polling at around 3% and came in fifth at Ames, he has a very devoted internet following and was considered the winner of 3 out of the 4 GOP debates.
Mitt Romney. Social Conservative (?) from Massachusetts. First-Tier.
Romney was a Governor. A moderate while Governor, Romney is now moving farther to the right for the election. He now has a reputation as a flip-flopper. He is topping the polls in 3 of the 5 early primary states and is doing well in the other 2. Came in first at Ames. He is polling at around 15%.
Tom Tancredo. Hard-Line Conservative from Colorado. Fringe.
Tancredo is a Congressman. He is known primarily for his anti-immigration stance, both legal and illegal. He is considered part of the loony right, even by many Conservatives. Came in fourth at Ames. He is polling at around 1%.
Fred Thompson. Conservative from Tennesee. First-Tier. Not yet running (?).
Thompson was a Senator. He has an 86.1% Conservative rating from the American Conservative Union. Although he still hasn't announced that he's running, he has basically been silently running for President since May. Has been polling between 15 and 20%.
There you go. One of these people will probably become the nominee, but before that happens, one of them has to give us a reason to get excited about them.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Think of it as a 286th Trimester Abortion: The Death of the McCain Campaign
Not too long ago, if you were to ask someone who the frontrunner for the 2008 race was, you would get a very different answer than you would today. It wouldn't be Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama. In fact, it wouldn't be a Democrat at all. It wouldn't even be Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or (dare I write his name without also bowing?) Newt Gingrich. It would be a man who could have done it in 2000, should have done it in 2004, and would have done it in 2008 if a few things had happened differently. He's John McCain, the King of Mavericks himself.
John McCain's campaign was picture-perfect in his 2000 run against Bush, Alan Keyes, Orrin Hatch, and a whole slew of other people. He had the fundraising, although not as well as Bush had it. He had a to-die-for staff. He had a following of people on both sides (and neither side) of the aisle. Most importantly, he had the Straight-Talk Express, the van that housed him, his staff, and reporters from across the nation. The only thing he didn't have was victory. And now, eight years later, he doesn't have much of a campaign left either.
The most obvious cause of this problem for McCain is his newfound ideas. Although McCain himself is where he's always been (slightly right of center), his biggest positions have been farther left. Recently, he caused a lot of groans among Republicans when he partnered up with Ted Kennedy (groan) to write a bill that proposed new amnesty (groan) that was supported by the president (groan - at least for this issue). He also opposed the Bush tax cuts, and although his strong pro-Iraq stance could have helped him in the primary, he failed to vote on the Iraq resolution.
The 2008 field of candidates isn't really helping much, either. The GOP is filled with top-notch people in the front: Giuliani for moderates, Thompson for conservatives, and Romney somewhere in the middle. He has also lost a lot of his independent following with the independent disdain for the president and the Congress. And, with his seventy-first birthday right around the corner, people might be more willing to support someone younger (although Reagan was inaugurated a few weeks before his seventieth birthday).
Basically, the master campaigner has a tough road ahead for the upcoming election. He's only raised about $26 million total this year to Rudy's $35.5 million and Romney's $35 million. He's been forced to cut around half his staff. With a shrinking wallet and a shrinking voter base, it's only a matter of time before McCain has to make a tough choice: to drop out, or not. And that will be the question on my mind come the end of this year.
John McCain's campaign was picture-perfect in his 2000 run against Bush, Alan Keyes, Orrin Hatch, and a whole slew of other people. He had the fundraising, although not as well as Bush had it. He had a to-die-for staff. He had a following of people on both sides (and neither side) of the aisle. Most importantly, he had the Straight-Talk Express, the van that housed him, his staff, and reporters from across the nation. The only thing he didn't have was victory. And now, eight years later, he doesn't have much of a campaign left either.
The most obvious cause of this problem for McCain is his newfound ideas. Although McCain himself is where he's always been (slightly right of center), his biggest positions have been farther left. Recently, he caused a lot of groans among Republicans when he partnered up with Ted Kennedy (groan) to write a bill that proposed new amnesty (groan) that was supported by the president (groan - at least for this issue). He also opposed the Bush tax cuts, and although his strong pro-Iraq stance could have helped him in the primary, he failed to vote on the Iraq resolution.
The 2008 field of candidates isn't really helping much, either. The GOP is filled with top-notch people in the front: Giuliani for moderates, Thompson for conservatives, and Romney somewhere in the middle. He has also lost a lot of his independent following with the independent disdain for the president and the Congress. And, with his seventy-first birthday right around the corner, people might be more willing to support someone younger (although Reagan was inaugurated a few weeks before his seventieth birthday).
Basically, the master campaigner has a tough road ahead for the upcoming election. He's only raised about $26 million total this year to Rudy's $35.5 million and Romney's $35 million. He's been forced to cut around half his staff. With a shrinking wallet and a shrinking voter base, it's only a matter of time before McCain has to make a tough choice: to drop out, or not. And that will be the question on my mind come the end of this year.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
On The Campaign Trail, Pt. 1
As you may have noticed, candidates have been announcing their intention to run for president in 2008 very early. Some (John McCain, Rudy, Hillary) have been running since early 2006 in preparation for a race in the far-off future. Unfortunately for me, I will be unable to vote in the upcoming election for president. The trade-off for the time I could spend deciding who to vote for is replaced with something else, something more... major. As many of you know, the minimum age for a president is 35, an age I will get to in 2028, an election year. Therefore, I, Joseph LoPresti hereby announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America in the year 2028.
I'm not too concerned about my own campaign once I win the primary; I am probably only the second or third person to announce that they are running, and every psychic in the state knows that 2028 will be a Republican year. I'm more concerned with my opponents' campaigns. Because most of the people who will run probably won't announce for another 3 or 4 years, my negative campaigning strategies will be unable to pay off, as the only other Republicans running in the primary live in Utah or something. Therefore, I will need to use positive campaign ads for myself, a strategy that is known for its "honesty," a word that does not exist in the vocabulary of the Washington elite such as my 35-year old self (R-[insert red state here]). This could result in me slipping a few points, due to the fact that the voters will not be aware that my opponents gamble, cheat on their spouses, and do other naughty things.
I will also need to start the great tradition here in American politics - raising money and sucking up to the special interests. Right now, I have a 100% rating from every special interest in the country, due to the fact that I have never voted on anything. However, I need to protect this for the future. Therefore, my campaign will take the following stances:
-Pro-life
-Pro-choice
-Pro-gun
-Pro-gun control
-Pro-Gay Marriage
-Anti-Gay Marriage
-Hard-Core Republican
-Maverick, Independent-minded, Bipartisan Negotiator
I will also be more than willing to accept donations in any amount between 10,000 and 99,999 dollars (6 figures makes it look like I am sucking up to big business, which I am [not]) from you, your special interest, your lawyer, your aging great-grandparents, your small and/or large business, or your local politicians, assuming they do not run themselves. Remember, I must have at least 666,000,000,000,000 dollars by the end of the third quarter of 2011, or I will be out of the race before it even begins. I will also need my supporters to set up a few 527s to raise money for advertising purposes.
Remember, with the anniversary of just about everything always right around the corner, I will need to up the ante on one-issue speeches to organizations that could get me closer to my 666 trillion dollar goal. If they notice me, I may get some much-needed face time on 60 Minutes for my under-the-radar campaign for the future of the nation. That being said, I must not be seen as someone who is likely to win. Therefore, I must pretend to run a low-key campaign in every state that does not start with "N" or "I" and end in "ew Hampshire" or "owa." I must be seen as the underdog, the sensible, under-appreciated minor candidate, and a friend of the common man. Then, and only then, will I be able to dominate the GOP scene as an uberpower in American politics.
I need supporters if I am to win in any election. Therefore, I need all of you supporters of mine (that is, assuming the readers support me) to get out there and tell people about my stances on the issues (both of them). Make sure you include my love of everything close to their hearts. I need to have a large variety of supporters who take every possible stance on everything. If I can do this, I will be able to win in 2028, putting me on the fast track to re-election in 2032, my campaign for which I intend on starting sometime next week.
I'm not too concerned about my own campaign once I win the primary; I am probably only the second or third person to announce that they are running, and every psychic in the state knows that 2028 will be a Republican year. I'm more concerned with my opponents' campaigns. Because most of the people who will run probably won't announce for another 3 or 4 years, my negative campaigning strategies will be unable to pay off, as the only other Republicans running in the primary live in Utah or something. Therefore, I will need to use positive campaign ads for myself, a strategy that is known for its "honesty," a word that does not exist in the vocabulary of the Washington elite such as my 35-year old self (R-[insert red state here]). This could result in me slipping a few points, due to the fact that the voters will not be aware that my opponents gamble, cheat on their spouses, and do other naughty things.
I will also need to start the great tradition here in American politics - raising money and sucking up to the special interests. Right now, I have a 100% rating from every special interest in the country, due to the fact that I have never voted on anything. However, I need to protect this for the future. Therefore, my campaign will take the following stances:
-Pro-life
-Pro-choice
-Pro-gun
-Pro-gun control
-Pro-Gay Marriage
-Anti-Gay Marriage
-Hard-Core Republican
-Maverick, Independent-minded, Bipartisan Negotiator
I will also be more than willing to accept donations in any amount between 10,000 and 99,999 dollars (6 figures makes it look like I am sucking up to big business, which I am [not]) from you, your special interest, your lawyer, your aging great-grandparents, your small and/or large business, or your local politicians, assuming they do not run themselves. Remember, I must have at least 666,000,000,000,000 dollars by the end of the third quarter of 2011, or I will be out of the race before it even begins. I will also need my supporters to set up a few 527s to raise money for advertising purposes.
Remember, with the anniversary of just about everything always right around the corner, I will need to up the ante on one-issue speeches to organizations that could get me closer to my 666 trillion dollar goal. If they notice me, I may get some much-needed face time on 60 Minutes for my under-the-radar campaign for the future of the nation. That being said, I must not be seen as someone who is likely to win. Therefore, I must pretend to run a low-key campaign in every state that does not start with "N" or "I" and end in "ew Hampshire" or "owa." I must be seen as the underdog, the sensible, under-appreciated minor candidate, and a friend of the common man. Then, and only then, will I be able to dominate the GOP scene as an uberpower in American politics.
I need supporters if I am to win in any election. Therefore, I need all of you supporters of mine (that is, assuming the readers support me) to get out there and tell people about my stances on the issues (both of them). Make sure you include my love of everything close to their hearts. I need to have a large variety of supporters who take every possible stance on everything. If I can do this, I will be able to win in 2028, putting me on the fast track to re-election in 2032, my campaign for which I intend on starting sometime next week.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
The Rise and Fall of the Democratic Congress
It seems like only yesterday the Democrats were celebrating their historic Senate victory of a one-seat lead in the sixth year of an unpopular president. During an extremely unpopular war. When the leading Republican Party was filled with so many scandals, even diehard conservatives either stayed home or voted Democratic. With only 49 actual Democrats, relying on a Senator they abandoned during the race and an unaffiliated Socialist to create a majority. However, it seems that now, less than a year later, the Dems are already losing their grip on the Senate.
If you think the President is unpopular, you’re right. In a July 11th Newsweek poll, Bush had 29% approval and 64% disapproval, for a net approval rating of -35%. But, amazingly, the Congress has managed to do even worse. In a July 9th AP-Ipsos poll, Congress had 24% approval and 70% disapproval, for a whopping -46% net approval rating from the people. Not exactly an outcry for the status quo, but definitely not a plea for Comrade Pelosi to ride in and save the world.
However, the Senate can still return to the Republicans before the 2008 elections. All we need is a way to get Joe Lieberman. Although Lieberman was the 2000 Democratic Party nominee for Vice President, he had a bit of a falling out with the party in 2006. Lieberman represents Connecticut, a liberal state by most standards, where support for Iraq is very low. Because he supports the mission, the Democratic voters in Connecticut decided to nominate Ned Lamont instead. Rather than sitting back and conceding defeat right then and there, however, Lieberman decided to run as an Independent, and ended up winning the election. Although he decided to caucus with the Democrats, he has supported the Republicans on a number of issues, most notably the Iraq resolution passed by the Democrats, which he opposed. All we need is for him to support one more Republican idea: affiliation with the Republican Party. This shouldn’t be too hard, if we’re willing to work for it.
If we can’t get Lieberman, it’s not the end of the world. We’ll just have to wait for the inevitable to happen in 2008. We only need to capture 2 seats to take control of the Senate, and that shouldn’t be too hard, considering the number of close Democratic seats where circumstances have drastically changed. I’ll start with the best news. John Kerry, although still fairly popular in Massachusetts, 63% of people in the rabidly liberal state do not want him to run again, with only 37% wanting him to run. This is great news in Massachusetts, which has an all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Another good seat for the GOP is that of Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. She won by a narrow margin of about 4% in a runoff in 2002, but after Katrina, many loyal Democrats have left the state, and when you take out their vote, the results are amazing. According to Human Events, Landrieu would have lost by 18 points had only the current population voted in 2002. Add to that the safety of most of the Republicans running in 2008 (save John Sununu, who could easily lose), and the Senate will most likely return to the GOP.
Therefore, I will not be surprised in 2008 when the GOP takes everything back. The Dems are simply not effective leaders in the Internet Age, where voters can read about their every blunder as it happens. When the next vote rolls around, they will remember the damage Bush did in his 8 years, but they will also remember the damage the Democratic Congress did in only 2, and they will remember Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and their insanity. In short, the “rise” in the Rise and Fall of the Democratic Congress is long gone, and the “fall” is coming just in time for the 2008 votes.
If you think the President is unpopular, you’re right. In a July 11th Newsweek poll, Bush had 29% approval and 64% disapproval, for a net approval rating of -35%. But, amazingly, the Congress has managed to do even worse. In a July 9th AP-Ipsos poll, Congress had 24% approval and 70% disapproval, for a whopping -46% net approval rating from the people. Not exactly an outcry for the status quo, but definitely not a plea for Comrade Pelosi to ride in and save the world.
However, the Senate can still return to the Republicans before the 2008 elections. All we need is a way to get Joe Lieberman. Although Lieberman was the 2000 Democratic Party nominee for Vice President, he had a bit of a falling out with the party in 2006. Lieberman represents Connecticut, a liberal state by most standards, where support for Iraq is very low. Because he supports the mission, the Democratic voters in Connecticut decided to nominate Ned Lamont instead. Rather than sitting back and conceding defeat right then and there, however, Lieberman decided to run as an Independent, and ended up winning the election. Although he decided to caucus with the Democrats, he has supported the Republicans on a number of issues, most notably the Iraq resolution passed by the Democrats, which he opposed. All we need is for him to support one more Republican idea: affiliation with the Republican Party. This shouldn’t be too hard, if we’re willing to work for it.
If we can’t get Lieberman, it’s not the end of the world. We’ll just have to wait for the inevitable to happen in 2008. We only need to capture 2 seats to take control of the Senate, and that shouldn’t be too hard, considering the number of close Democratic seats where circumstances have drastically changed. I’ll start with the best news. John Kerry, although still fairly popular in Massachusetts, 63% of people in the rabidly liberal state do not want him to run again, with only 37% wanting him to run. This is great news in Massachusetts, which has an all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Another good seat for the GOP is that of Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. She won by a narrow margin of about 4% in a runoff in 2002, but after Katrina, many loyal Democrats have left the state, and when you take out their vote, the results are amazing. According to Human Events, Landrieu would have lost by 18 points had only the current population voted in 2002. Add to that the safety of most of the Republicans running in 2008 (save John Sununu, who could easily lose), and the Senate will most likely return to the GOP.
Therefore, I will not be surprised in 2008 when the GOP takes everything back. The Dems are simply not effective leaders in the Internet Age, where voters can read about their every blunder as it happens. When the next vote rolls around, they will remember the damage Bush did in his 8 years, but they will also remember the damage the Democratic Congress did in only 2, and they will remember Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and their insanity. In short, the “rise” in the Rise and Fall of the Democratic Congress is long gone, and the “fall” is coming just in time for the 2008 votes.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Welcome, welcome, welcome!
Welcome to Politics as Usual, my latest attempt to show the world what I believe, why I believe it, what's going on, and what we can create for the future. Because America is the most powerful nation in the world, our political goings-on are important to all people, especially to the people here in America. I will try to post here every Wednesday, and if I'm not there on that day, I'll post on Thrusday or Saturday. I hope you enjoy this view into my political mind.
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