Saturday, August 18, 2007

The Grand Old Problem: No Candidates and a Looming Election

With 2007 becoming the election year as we speak and New Hampshire contemplating moving their primary into this December, the search for someone who can unite the Republican party and the nation in the general election against Hillary (or Obama/Edwards/etc. if something weird happens) is getting urgent. With around half of Republicans unsatified with the options and less than half a year until the primaries, GOPers are looking for new options and giving old options another look (see Mitt Romney's rising poll numbers). Right now, the Republican Race has three tiers: the first, the second, and the fringe. These candidates are scattered all around the political spectrum and all around the country. To help clear up the confusion, I will catagorize the candidates that are (or may be) running, and give a brief description of each of them. Hopefully, I'll teach you something, and maybe, just maybe, we can turn one of these people into a candidate we can support.


Sam Brownback. NeoCon from Kansas. Fringe.
Sam Brownback is a Senator. He supports a Flat Tax, interventionist foreign policies, repealing Roe, and Bush-style amnesty. Came in thrid at Ames. A Bush Clone polling at around 1% in the polls.


John Cox. Possible Conservative from Illinois. Fringe.
Cox is a talk radio host from Chicago. Because he is such a long shot, his views are tough to pinpoint or find. Came in last at Ames. He has absolutely no chance (polling at around .5% or less).

Newt Gingrich. NeoCon from Georgia. Second Tier. Not yet running.
Gingrich was Speaker of the House. He helped lead the Republicans to their first true congressional victory in 50 years in the 1994 Republican Revolution. Very unpopular with Liberals and Moderates, but popular with Conservatives. Polling at around 10% when included.

Rudy Giuliani. Moderate Libertarian from New York. First Tier.
Giuliani was a Mayor. He is often labeled a Moderate or a Liberal, but his strong fiscal conservatism definately puts him in liberatrian territory. His leadership brought New York City into the 21st century with slashed crime rates and taxes. He is polling at around 30%.

Mike Huckabee. NeoCon from Arkansas. Second Tier.
Huckabee was a Governor. His views are very consistent with Bush's, yet he is very popular in his moderate home state. Came in second at Ames. He has been polling at around 4 or 5 percent since Ames.

Duncan Hunter. Conservative from California. Fringe.
Hunter is a Congressman. His views are in line with the new breed of Conservatism displayed by many of the more modern NeoCons, with an interventionist foreign policy but opposing amnesty. Came in next-to-last at Ames. H has been polling at around 1%.

John McCain. Moderate from Arizona. Second-Tier.
McCain is a Senator. He ran for President against Bush in 2000. Has been steadily falling in the polls since early 2006. Losing popularity with all voters, but still popular with Moderates. He has been polling at around 10%.

Ron Paul. PaleoCon from Texas. Second-Tier.
Paul is a Congressman. He ran for President as a Libertarian in 1988. Although he is only polling at around 3% and came in fifth at Ames, he has a very devoted internet following and was considered the winner of 3 out of the 4 GOP debates.

Mitt Romney. Social Conservative (?) from Massachusetts. First-Tier.
Romney was a Governor. A moderate while Governor, Romney is now moving farther to the right for the election. He now has a reputation as a flip-flopper. He is topping the polls in 3 of the 5 early primary states and is doing well in the other 2. Came in first at Ames. He is polling at around 15%.

Tom Tancredo. Hard-Line Conservative from Colorado. Fringe.
Tancredo is a Congressman. He is known primarily for his anti-immigration stance, both legal and illegal. He is considered part of the loony right, even by many Conservatives. Came in fourth at Ames. He is polling at around 1%.

Fred Thompson. Conservative from Tennesee. First-Tier. Not yet running (?).
Thompson was a Senator. He has an 86.1% Conservative rating from the American Conservative Union. Although he still hasn't announced that he's running, he has basically been silently running for President since May. Has been polling between 15 and 20%.

There you go. One of these people will probably become the nominee, but before that happens, one of them has to give us a reason to get excited about them.

1 comment:

Stephen said...

Good analysis, except for Ron Paul. If Guiliani is a libertarian - and you are correct, he is - surely the LIBERTARIAN candidate is a libertarian.

He's also far from being second tier. He is definitely fringe, and just because he has an unhinged, fanatical base on the Internet means little. That didn't do much for Howard Dean, either.

In addition, many Paul supporters are registered Democrats (or are not registered at all because they are so far out of the mainstream) who are attracted to his anti-war policy but will not likely vote in the primaries.