With 2007 becoming the election year as we speak and New Hampshire contemplating moving their primary into this December, the search for someone who can unite the Republican party and the nation in the general election against Hillary (or Obama/Edwards/etc. if something weird happens) is getting urgent. With around half of Republicans unsatified with the options and less than half a year until the primaries, GOPers are looking for new options and giving old options another look (see Mitt Romney's rising poll numbers). Right now, the Republican Race has three tiers: the first, the second, and the fringe. These candidates are scattered all around the political spectrum and all around the country. To help clear up the confusion, I will catagorize the candidates that are (or may be) running, and give a brief description of each of them. Hopefully, I'll teach you something, and maybe, just maybe, we can turn one of these people into a candidate we can support.
Sam Brownback. NeoCon from Kansas. Fringe.
Sam Brownback is a Senator. He supports a Flat Tax, interventionist foreign policies, repealing Roe, and Bush-style amnesty. Came in thrid at Ames. A Bush Clone polling at around 1% in the polls.
John Cox. Possible Conservative from Illinois. Fringe.
Cox is a talk radio host from Chicago. Because he is such a long shot, his views are tough to pinpoint or find. Came in last at Ames. He has absolutely no chance (polling at around .5% or less).
Newt Gingrich. NeoCon from Georgia. Second Tier. Not yet running.
Gingrich was Speaker of the House. He helped lead the Republicans to their first true congressional victory in 50 years in the 1994 Republican Revolution. Very unpopular with Liberals and Moderates, but popular with Conservatives. Polling at around 10% when included.
Rudy Giuliani. Moderate Libertarian from New York. First Tier.
Giuliani was a Mayor. He is often labeled a Moderate or a Liberal, but his strong fiscal conservatism definately puts him in liberatrian territory. His leadership brought New York City into the 21st century with slashed crime rates and taxes. He is polling at around 30%.
Mike Huckabee. NeoCon from Arkansas. Second Tier.
Huckabee was a Governor. His views are very consistent with Bush's, yet he is very popular in his moderate home state. Came in second at Ames. He has been polling at around 4 or 5 percent since Ames.
Duncan Hunter. Conservative from California. Fringe.
Hunter is a Congressman. His views are in line with the new breed of Conservatism displayed by many of the more modern NeoCons, with an interventionist foreign policy but opposing amnesty. Came in next-to-last at Ames. H has been polling at around 1%.
John McCain. Moderate from Arizona. Second-Tier.
McCain is a Senator. He ran for President against Bush in 2000. Has been steadily falling in the polls since early 2006. Losing popularity with all voters, but still popular with Moderates. He has been polling at around 10%.
Ron Paul. PaleoCon from Texas. Second-Tier.
Paul is a Congressman. He ran for President as a Libertarian in 1988. Although he is only polling at around 3% and came in fifth at Ames, he has a very devoted internet following and was considered the winner of 3 out of the 4 GOP debates.
Mitt Romney. Social Conservative (?) from Massachusetts. First-Tier.
Romney was a Governor. A moderate while Governor, Romney is now moving farther to the right for the election. He now has a reputation as a flip-flopper. He is topping the polls in 3 of the 5 early primary states and is doing well in the other 2. Came in first at Ames. He is polling at around 15%.
Tom Tancredo. Hard-Line Conservative from Colorado. Fringe.
Tancredo is a Congressman. He is known primarily for his anti-immigration stance, both legal and illegal. He is considered part of the loony right, even by many Conservatives. Came in fourth at Ames. He is polling at around 1%.
Fred Thompson. Conservative from Tennesee. First-Tier. Not yet running (?).
Thompson was a Senator. He has an 86.1% Conservative rating from the American Conservative Union. Although he still hasn't announced that he's running, he has basically been silently running for President since May. Has been polling between 15 and 20%.
There you go. One of these people will probably become the nominee, but before that happens, one of them has to give us a reason to get excited about them.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Think of it as a 286th Trimester Abortion: The Death of the McCain Campaign
Not too long ago, if you were to ask someone who the frontrunner for the 2008 race was, you would get a very different answer than you would today. It wouldn't be Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama. In fact, it wouldn't be a Democrat at all. It wouldn't even be Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or (dare I write his name without also bowing?) Newt Gingrich. It would be a man who could have done it in 2000, should have done it in 2004, and would have done it in 2008 if a few things had happened differently. He's John McCain, the King of Mavericks himself.
John McCain's campaign was picture-perfect in his 2000 run against Bush, Alan Keyes, Orrin Hatch, and a whole slew of other people. He had the fundraising, although not as well as Bush had it. He had a to-die-for staff. He had a following of people on both sides (and neither side) of the aisle. Most importantly, he had the Straight-Talk Express, the van that housed him, his staff, and reporters from across the nation. The only thing he didn't have was victory. And now, eight years later, he doesn't have much of a campaign left either.
The most obvious cause of this problem for McCain is his newfound ideas. Although McCain himself is where he's always been (slightly right of center), his biggest positions have been farther left. Recently, he caused a lot of groans among Republicans when he partnered up with Ted Kennedy (groan) to write a bill that proposed new amnesty (groan) that was supported by the president (groan - at least for this issue). He also opposed the Bush tax cuts, and although his strong pro-Iraq stance could have helped him in the primary, he failed to vote on the Iraq resolution.
The 2008 field of candidates isn't really helping much, either. The GOP is filled with top-notch people in the front: Giuliani for moderates, Thompson for conservatives, and Romney somewhere in the middle. He has also lost a lot of his independent following with the independent disdain for the president and the Congress. And, with his seventy-first birthday right around the corner, people might be more willing to support someone younger (although Reagan was inaugurated a few weeks before his seventieth birthday).
Basically, the master campaigner has a tough road ahead for the upcoming election. He's only raised about $26 million total this year to Rudy's $35.5 million and Romney's $35 million. He's been forced to cut around half his staff. With a shrinking wallet and a shrinking voter base, it's only a matter of time before McCain has to make a tough choice: to drop out, or not. And that will be the question on my mind come the end of this year.
John McCain's campaign was picture-perfect in his 2000 run against Bush, Alan Keyes, Orrin Hatch, and a whole slew of other people. He had the fundraising, although not as well as Bush had it. He had a to-die-for staff. He had a following of people on both sides (and neither side) of the aisle. Most importantly, he had the Straight-Talk Express, the van that housed him, his staff, and reporters from across the nation. The only thing he didn't have was victory. And now, eight years later, he doesn't have much of a campaign left either.
The most obvious cause of this problem for McCain is his newfound ideas. Although McCain himself is where he's always been (slightly right of center), his biggest positions have been farther left. Recently, he caused a lot of groans among Republicans when he partnered up with Ted Kennedy (groan) to write a bill that proposed new amnesty (groan) that was supported by the president (groan - at least for this issue). He also opposed the Bush tax cuts, and although his strong pro-Iraq stance could have helped him in the primary, he failed to vote on the Iraq resolution.
The 2008 field of candidates isn't really helping much, either. The GOP is filled with top-notch people in the front: Giuliani for moderates, Thompson for conservatives, and Romney somewhere in the middle. He has also lost a lot of his independent following with the independent disdain for the president and the Congress. And, with his seventy-first birthday right around the corner, people might be more willing to support someone younger (although Reagan was inaugurated a few weeks before his seventieth birthday).
Basically, the master campaigner has a tough road ahead for the upcoming election. He's only raised about $26 million total this year to Rudy's $35.5 million and Romney's $35 million. He's been forced to cut around half his staff. With a shrinking wallet and a shrinking voter base, it's only a matter of time before McCain has to make a tough choice: to drop out, or not. And that will be the question on my mind come the end of this year.
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